Trump, Biden show signs of weakness with independents in 3 big states: Preliminary exit polls
The two are set for an expected faceoff in November.
Preliminary Super Tuesday exit poll results show weaknesses for Joe Biden and Donald Trump alike among independent voters while also raising questions about the extent to which supporters of Nikki Haley would turn out for Trump in November if he beats her for the Republican presidential nomination.
In sum, the findings in California, North Carolina and Virginia -- the three states with exit polls on Tuesday -- mark challenges facing both President Biden and former President Trump in an expected November face-off.
Notably, 78% of Haley voters in the North Carolina Republican presidential primary, 69% in California and 68% in Virginia are unwilling to say they'll support the party's nominee whoever it is, mirroring Haley's recent hedge on the issue. Just 21, 26 and 27%, respectively, take the pledge.
Moreover, as in previous primaries, large majorities of Haley voters say Trump would be unfit for office if convicted of a crime, say they'd be dissatisfied with him as the nominee and reject his claim that Biden didn't legitimately win in 2020, a tenet of Trump's campaign. (Trump faces 91 charges and denies all wrongdoing.)
In other signs of distance from Trump supporters, most Haley voters oppose a federal abortion ban and support a chance for most unauthorized immigrants to apply for legal status. In questions asked only in California, Haley voters overwhelmingly are dissatisfied with the 2022 Supreme Court ruling eliminating the constitutional right to an abortion and 54% disapprove of Trump's performance as president.
In a potential boost to Biden, 48% of Haley voters in North Carolina and Virginia alike approve of his work as president; this drops to 30% in California. Combined across the three states, 40% of Haley voters approve of Biden's job performance, 58% disapprove.
The question, then, is both whether some Haley voters may shift to Biden in November as well as how many will turn out for Trump if, as expected, he wins his party's nomination.
Overall, Democrats account for just 4% of GOP primary voters in these three primaries. They concentrate as Haley voters and Biden approvers: Among Haley voters who approve of Biden, 28% are Democrats, 47% are independents and 26% are Republicans. (Among Haley voters who disapprove of Biden, by contrast, just 2% are Democrats, 34% independents, 64% Republicans.)
Additionally, among Haley voters who approve of Biden, 84% are moderates or liberals and 16% are conservatives. Among those who disapprove of Biden, 39% are moderates or liberals and 61% are conservative.
Haley voters who approve of Biden are more optimistic about the country and the economy alike. They have a 53-44% positive-negative view of the way things are going in the country and a 72-28% positive-negative view of the nation's economy. Among Haley voters who disapprove of Biden, it's 14-86% positive-negative on the way things are going and 26-73% positive-negative on the economy.